Dynamics of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections and their infectiousness to mosquitoes in a low transmission setting of Ethiopia: a longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVE: A 15-month longitudinal study was conducted to determine the duration and infectivity of asymptomatic qPCR-detected Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections in Ethiopia. METHOD: Total parasite and gametocyte kinetics were determined by molecular methods; infectivity to Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes by repeated membrane feeding assays. Infectivity results were contrasted with passively recruited symptomatic malaria cases. RESULTS: For P. falciparum and P. vivax infections detected at enrolment, median durations of infection were 37 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 15-93) and 60 days (95% CI, 18-213), respectively. P. falciparum and P. vivax parasite densities declined over the course of infections. From 47 feeding assays on 22 asymptomatic P. falciparum infections, 6.4% (3/47) were infectious and these infected 1.8% (29/1579) of mosquitoes. No transmission was observed in feeding assays on asymptomatic P. vivax mono-infections (0/56); one mixed-species infection was highly infectious. Among the symptomatic cases, 4.3% (2/47) of P. falciparum and 73.3% (53/86) of P. vivax patients were infectious to mosquitoes. CONCLUSION: The majority of asymptomatic infections were of short duration and low parasite density. Only a minority of asymptomatic individuals were infectious to mosquitoes. This contrasts with earlier findings and is plausibly due to the low parasite densities in this population.

Understanding and maximising the community impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Burkina Faso (INDIE-SMC): study protocol for a cluster randomised evaluation trial.

INTRODUCTION: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) involves repeated administrations of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine to children below the age of 5 years during the peak transmission season in areas of seasonal malaria transmission. While highly impactful in reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden in controlled research settings, the impact of SMC on infection prevalence is moderate in real-life settings. It remains unclear what drives this efficacy decay. Recently, the WHO widened the scope for SMC to target all vulnerable populations. The Ministry of Health (MoH) in Burkina Faso is considering extending SMC to children below 10 years old. We aim to assess the impact of SMC on clinical incidence and parasite prevalence and quantify the human infectious reservoir for malaria in this population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a cluster randomised trial in Saponé Health District, Burkina Faso, with three study arms comprising 62 clusters of three compounds: arm 1 (control): SMC in under 5-year-old children, implemented by the MoH without directly observed treatment (DOT) for the full course of SMC; arm 2 (intervention): SMC in under 5-year-old children, with DOT for the full course of SMC; arm 3 (intervention): SMC in under 10-year-old children, with DOT for the full course of SMC. The primary endpoint is parasite prevalence at the end of the malaria transmission season. Secondary endpoints include the impact of SMC on clinical incidence. Factors affecting SMC uptake, treatment adherence, drug concentrations, parasite resistance markers and transmission of parasites will be determined. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine's Ethics Committee (29193) and the Burkina Faso National Medical Ethics Committee (Deliberation No 2023-05-104) approved this study. The findings will be presented to the community; disease occurrence data and study outcomes will also be shared with the Burkina Faso MoH. Findings will be published irrespective of their results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05878366.

Prediction of Long-Term Physical, Mental, and Cognitive Problems Following Critical Illness: Development and External Validation of the PROSPECT Prediction Model.

OBJECTIVES: ICU survivors often suffer from long-lasting physical, mental, and cognitive health problems after hospital discharge. As several interventions that treat or prevent these problems already start during ICU stay, patients at high risk should be identified early. This study aimed to develop a model for early prediction of post-ICU health problems within 48 hours after ICU admission. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in seven Dutch ICUs. SETTING/PATIENTS: ICU patients older than 16 years and admitted for greater than or equal to 12 hours between July 2016 and March 2020. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes were physical problems (fatigue or ≥ 3 new physical symptoms), mental problems (anxiety, depression, or post-traumatic stress disorder), and cognitive impairment. Patient record data and questionnaire data were collected at ICU admission, and after 3 and 12 months, of 2,476 patients. Several models predicting physical, mental, or cognitive problems and a composite score at 3 and 12 months were developed using variables collected within 48 hours after ICU admission. Based on performance and clinical feasibility, a model, PROSPECT, predicting post-ICU health problems at 3 months was chosen, including the predictors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, admission type, expected length of ICU stay greater than or equal to 2 days, and preadmission anxiety and fatigue. Internal validation using bootstrapping on data of the largest hospital ( n = 1,244) yielded a C -statistic of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.76). External validation was performed on data ( n = 864) from the other six hospitals with a C -statistic of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80). CONCLUSIONS: The developed and externally validated PROSPECT model can be used within 48 hours after ICU admission for identifying patients with an increased risk of post-ICU problems 3 months after ICU admission. Timely preventive interventions starting during ICU admission and follow-up care can prevent or mitigate post-ICU problems in these high-risk patients.

Susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae to Natural Plasmodium falciparum Infection: A Comparison between the Well-Established Anopheles gambiae s.s Line and a Newly Established Ugandan Anopheles gambiae s.s. Line.

Much of our understanding of malaria transmission comes from mosquito feeding assays using Anopheles mosquitoes from colonies that are well adapted to membrane feeding. This raises the question whether results from colony mosquitoes lead to overestimates of outcomes in wild Anopheles mosquitoes. We successfully established an Anopheles colony using progeny of wild Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes (Busia mosquitoes) and directly compared their susceptibility to infection with Plasmodium falciparum with the widely used An. gambiae s.s. mosquitoes (Kisumu mosquitoes) using gametocyte-infected Ugandan donor blood. The proportion of infectious feeds did not differ between Busia (71.8%, 23/32) and Kisumu (68.8%, 22/32, P = 1.00) mosquitoes. When correcting for random effects of donor blood, we observed a 23% higher proportion of infected Busia mosquitoes than infected Kisumu mosquitoes (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10-1.38, P < 0.001). This study suggests that feeding assays with Kisumu mosquitoes do not overestimate outcomes in wild An. gambiae s.s. mosquitoes, the mosquito species most relevant to malaria transmission in Uganda.

Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte carriage in longitudinally monitored incident infections is associated with duration of infection and human host factors.

Malaria transmission depends on the presence of Plasmodium gametocytes that are the only parasite life stage that can infect mosquitoes. Gametocyte production varies between infections and over the course of infections. Infection duration is highly important for gametocyte production but poorly quantified. Between 2017 and 2019 an all-age cohort of individuals from Tororo, eastern Uganda was followed by continuous passive and routine assessments. We longitudinally monitored 104 incident infections from 98 individuals who were sampled once every 28 days and on any day of symptoms. Among infections that lasted ≥ 3 months, gametocyte appearance was near-universal with 96% of infections having detectable gametocytes prior to clearance. However, most infections were of much shorter duration; 55.7% of asymptomatic infections were detected only once. When considering all asymptomatic infections, regardless of their duration, only 36.3% had detectable gametocytes on at least one time-point prior to parasite clearance. Infections in individuals with sickle-cell trait (HbAS) were more likely to have gametocytes detected (Hazard Rate (HR) = 2.68, 95% CI 1.12, 6.38; p = 0.0231) and had gametocytes detected at higher densities (Density Ratio (DR) = 9.19, 95% CI 2.79, 30.23; p = 0.0002) compared to infections in wildtype (HbAA) individuals. Our findings suggest that a large proportion of incident infections is too short in duration and of too low density to contribute to onward transmission.

Potent transmission-blocking monoclonal antibodies from naturally exposed individuals target a conserved epitope on Plasmodium falciparum Pfs230.

Pfs230 is essential for Plasmodium falciparum transmission to mosquitoes and is the protein targeted by the most advanced malaria-transmission-blocking vaccine candidate. Prior understanding of functional epitopes on Pfs230 is based on two monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with moderate transmission-reducing activity (TRA), elicited from subunit immunization. Here, we screened the B cell repertoire of two naturally exposed individuals possessing serum TRA and identified five potent mAbs from sixteen Pfs230 domain-1-specific mAbs. Structures of three potent and three low-activity antibodies bound to Pfs230 domain 1 revealed four distinct epitopes. Highly potent mAbs from natural infection recognized a common conformational epitope that is highly conserved across P. falciparum field isolates, while antibodies with negligible TRA derived from natural infection or immunization recognized three distinct sites. Our study provides molecular blueprints describing P. falciparum TRA, informed by contrasting potent and non-functional epitopes elicited by natural exposure and vaccination.

Development and External Validation of a Prediction Model for Quality of Life of ICU Survivors: A Subanalysis of the MONITOR-IC Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and externally validate a prediction model for ICU survivors' change in quality of life 1 year after ICU admission that can support ICU physicians in preparing patients for life after ICU and managing their expectations. DESIGN: Data from a prospective multicenter cohort study (MONITOR-IC) were used. SETTING: Seven hospitals in the Netherlands. PATIENTS: ICU survivors greater than or equal to 16 years old. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcome was defined as change in quality of life, measured using the EuroQol 5D questionnaire. The developed model was based on data from an academic hospital, using multivariable linear regression analysis. To assist usability, variables were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. External validation was executed using data of six nonacademic hospitals. Of 1,804 patients included in analysis, 1,057 patients (58.6%) were admitted to the academic hospital, and 747 patients (41.4%) were admitted to a nonacademic hospital. Forty-nine variables were entered into a linear regression model, resulting in an explained variance ( R2 ) of 56.6%. Only three variables, baseline quality of life, admission type, and Glasgow Coma Scale, were selected for the final model ( R2 = 52.5%). External validation showed good predictive power ( R2 = 53.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and externally validated a prediction model for change in quality of life 1 year after ICU admission. Due to the small number of predictors, the model is appealing for use in clinical practice, where it can be implemented to prepare patients for life after ICU. The next step is to evaluate the impact of this prediction model on outcomes and experiences of patients.

Vaccination with a structure-based stabilized version of malarial antigen Pfs48/45 elicits ultra-potent transmission-blocking antibody responses.

Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) aim to elicit human antibodies that inhibit sporogonic development of Plasmodium falciparum in mosquitoes, thereby preventing onward transmission. Pfs48/45 is a leading clinical TBV candidate antigen and is recognized by the most potent transmission-blocking monoclonal antibody (mAb) yet described; still, clinical development of Pfs48/45 antigens has been hindered, largely by its poor biochemical characteristics. Here, we used structure-based computational approaches to design Pfs48/45 antigens stabilized in the conformation recognized by the most potently inhibitory mAb, achieving >25°C higher thermostability compared with the wild-type protein. Antibodies elicited in mice immunized with these engineered antigens displayed on liposome-based or protein nanoparticle-based vaccine platforms exhibited 1-2 orders of magnitude superior transmission-reducing activity, compared with immunogens bearing the wild-type antigen, driven by improved antibody quality. Our data provide the founding principles for using molecular stabilization solely from antibody structure-function information to drive improved immune responses against a parasitic vaccine target.

Safety, tolerability, and Plasmodium falciparum transmission-reducing activity of monoclonal antibody TB31F: a single-centre, open-label, first-in-human, dose-escalation, phase 1 trial in healthy malaria-naive adults.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination requires interruption of the highly efficient transmission of Plasmodium parasites by mosquitoes. TB31F is a humanised monoclonal antibody that binds the gamete surface protein Pfs48/45 and inhibits fertilisation, thereby preventing further parasite development in the mosquito midgut and onward transmission. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of TB31F in malaria-naive participants. METHODS: In this open-label, first-in-human, dose-escalation, phase 1 clinical trial, healthy, malaria-naive, adult participants were administered a single intravenous dose of 0·1, 1, 3, or 10 mg/kg TB31F or a subcutaneous dose of 100 mg TB31F, and monitored until day 84 after administration at a single centre in the Netherlands. The primary outcome was the frequency and magnitude of adverse events. Additionally, TB31F serum concentrations were measured by ELISA. Transmission-reducing activity (TRA) of participant sera was assessed by standard membrane feeding assays with Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes and cultured Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes. The trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04238689. FINDINGS: Between Feb 17 and Dec 10, 2020, 25 participants were enrolled and sequentially assigned to each dose (n=5 per group). No serious or severe adverse events occurred. In total, 33 grade 1 and six grade 2 related adverse events occurred in 20 (80%) of 25 participants across all groups. Serum of all participants administered 1 mg/kg, 3 mg/kg, or 10 mg/kg TB31F intravenously had more than 80% TRA for 28 days or more, 56 days or more, and 84 days or more, respectively. The TB31F serum concentration reaching 80% TRA was 2·1 µg/mL (95% CI 1·9-2·3). Extrapolating the duration of TRA from antibody kinetics suggests more than 80% TRA is maintained for 160 days (95% CI 136-193) following a single intravenous 10 mg/kg dose. INTERPRETATION: TB31F is a well tolerated and highly potent monoclonal antibody capable of completely blocking transmission of P falciparum parasites from humans to mosquitoes. In areas of seasonal transmission, a single dose might cover an entire malaria season. FUNDING: PATH's Malaria Vaccine Initiative.

Quantifying Reductions in Plasmodium falciparum Infectivity to Mosquitos: A Sample Size Calculator to Inform Clinical Trials on Transmission-Reducing Interventions.

Malaria transmission depends on the presence of mature Plasmodium transmission stages (gametocytes) that may render blood-feeding Anopheles mosquitos infectious. Transmission-blocking antimalarial drugs and vaccines can prevent transmission by reducing gametocyte densities or infectivity to mosquitos. Mosquito infection outcomes are thereby informative biological endpoints of clinical trials with transmission blocking interventions. Nevertheless, trials are often primarily designed to determine intervention safety; transmission blocking efficacy is difficult to incorporate in sample size considerations due to variation in infection outcomes and considerable inter-study variation. Here, we use clinical trial data from studies in malaria naive and naturally exposed study participants to present an online sample size calculator tool. This sample size calculator allows studies to be powered to detect reductions in the proportion of infected mosquitos or infection burden (oocyst density) in mosquitos. The utility of this online tool is illustrated using trial data with transmission blocking malaria drugs.

Asymptomatic School-Aged Children Are Important Drivers of Malaria Transmission in a High Endemicity Setting in Uganda.

Achieving malaria elimination requires a better understanding of the transmissibility of human infections in different transmission settings. This study aimed to characterize the human infectious reservoir in a high endemicity setting in eastern Uganda, using gametocyte quantification and mosquito feeding assays. In asymptomatic infections, gametocyte densities were positively associated with the proportion of infected mosquitoes (ß = 1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.92; P < .0001). Combining transmissibility and abundance in the population, symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were estimated to contribute to 5.3% and 94.7% of the infectious reservoir, respectively. School-aged children (5-15 years old) contributed to 50.4% of transmission events and were important drivers of malaria transmission.

Predicting surgical outcome in posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy with the aid of a preoperative nomogram.

BACKGROUND: Posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy (PRA) has several advantages over transperitoneal laparoscopic adrenalectomy (TLA) regarding operative time, blood loss, postoperative pain, and recovery. However, it can be a technically challenging procedure. To improve patient selection for PRA, we developed a preoperative nomogram to predict operative time. METHODS: All consecutive patients with tumors of ≤ 7 cm and a body mass index (BMI) of < 35 kg/m2 undergoing unilateral PRA between February 2011 and March 2020 were included in the study. The primary outcome was operative time as surrogate endpoint for surgical complexity. Using ten patient variables, an optimal prediction model was created, with a best subsets regression analysis to find the best one-variable up to the best seven-variable model. RESULTS: In total 215 patients were included, with a mean age of 52 years and mean tumor size of 2.4 cm. After best subsets regression analysis, a four-variable nomogram was selected and calibrated. This model included sex, pheochromocytoma, BMI, and perinephric fat, which were all individually significant predictors. This model showed an ideal balance between predictive power and applicability, with an R2 of 38.6. CONCLUSIONS: A four-variable nomogram was developed to predict operative time in PRA, which can aid the surgeon to preoperatively identify suitable patients for PRA. If the nomogram predicts longer operative time and therefore a more complex operation, TLA should be considered as an alternative approach since it provides a larger working space. Also, the nomogram can be used for training purposes to select patients with favorable characteristics when learning this surgical approach.

Naturally acquired antibodies to gametocyte antigens are associated with reduced transmission of Plasmodium vivax gametocytes to Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes.

Naturally acquired antibodies may reduce the transmission of Plasmodium gametocytes to mosquitoes. Here, we investigated associations between antibody prevalence and P. vivax infectivity to mosquitoes. A total of 368 microscopy confirmed P. vivax symptomatic patients were passively recruited from health centers in Ethiopia and supplemented with 56 observations from asymptomatic P. vivax parasite carriers. Direct membrane feeding assays (DMFA) were performed to assess mosquito infectivity; for selected feeds these experiments were also performed after replacing autologous plasma with malaria naïve control serum (n=61). The prevalence of antibodies against 6 sexual stage antigens (Pvs47, Pvs48/45, Pvs230, PvsHAP2, Pvs25 and PvCelTOS) and an array of asexual antigens was determined by ELISA and multiplexed bead-based assays. Gametocyte (ρ< 0.42; p = 0.0001) and parasite (ρ = 0.21; p = 0.0001) densities were positively associated with mosquito infection rates. Antibodies against Pvs47, Pvs230 and Pvs25 were associated with 23 and 34% reductions in mosquito infection rates (p<0.0001), respectively. Individuals who showed evidence of transmission blockade in serum-replacement DMFAs (n=8) were significantly more likely to have PvsHAP2 or Pvs47 antibodies. Further studies may demonstrate causality for the observed associations, improve our understanding of the natural transmission of P. vivax and support vaccine development.

Pharyngo-Esophageal Modulatory Swallow Responses to Bolus Volume and Viscosity Across Time.

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: Modulation of the pharyngeal swallow to bolus volume and viscosity is important for safe swallowing and is commonly studied using high-resolution pharyngeal manometry (HRPM). Use of unidirectional pressure sensor technology may, however, introduce variability in swallow measures and a fixed bolus administration protocol may induce time and order effects. We aimed to overcome these limitations and to investigate the effect of time by repeating randomized measurements using circumferential pressure sensor technology. STUDY DESIGN: Sub-set analysis of data from the placebo arm of a randomized, repeated measures trial. METHODS: HRPM with impedance was recorded using a solid-state catheter with 36 circumferential pressure sensors and 18 impedance segments straddling from hypopharynx to stomach. Testing included triplicates of 5, 10, and 20 ml thin liquid and 10 ml thick liquid boluses, the order of the thin liquid boluses was randomized. The swallow challenges were repeated approximately 10 minutes after finishing the baseline measurement. RESULTS: We included 19 healthy adults (10/9 male/female; age 24.5 ± 4.1 year). Intrabolus pressure, all upper esophageal sphincter (UES) opening and relaxation metrics, and flow timing metrics increased with larger volumes. A thicker viscosity decreased UES relaxation time, UES basal pressure, and flow timing metrics, whereas UES opening extent increased. Pre-swallow UES basal pressure and post-swallow UES contractile integral decreased over time. CONCLUSION: Using circumferential pressure sensor technology, the effects of volume and viscosity were largely consistent with previous reports. UES contractile pressures reduced over time. The growing body of literature offers a benchmark for recognizing aberrant pharyngo-esophageal motor responses. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 Laryngoscope, 132:1817-1824, 2022.

Ascaris lumbricoides and ticks associated with sensitization to galactose α1,3-galactose and elicitation of the alpha-gal syndrome.

BACKGROUND: IgE to galactose alpha-1,3 galactose (alpha-gal) causes alpha-gal syndrome (delayed anaphylaxis after ingestion of mammalian meat). Development of sensitization has been attributed to tick bites; however, the possible role of other parasites has not been well studied. OBJECTIVE: Our aims were to assess the presence, relative abundances, and site of localization of alpha-gal-containing proteins in common ectoparasites and endoparasites endemic in an area of high prevalence of alpha-gal syndrome, as well as to investigate the ability of ascaris antigens to elicit a reaction in a humanized rat basophil in vitro sensitization model. METHODS: Levels of total IgE, Ascaris-specific IgE, and alpha-gal IgE were measured in sera from patients with challenge-proven alpha-gal syndrome and from controls without allergy. The presence, concentration, and localization of alpha-gal in parasites were assessed by ELISA, Western blotting, and immunohistochemistry. The ability of Ascaris lumbricoides antigen to elicit IgE-dependent reactivity was demonstrated by using the RS-ATL8 basophil reporter system. RESULTS: Alpha-gal IgE level correlated with A lumbricoides-specific IgE level. Alpha-gal protein at 70 to 130 kDa was detected in A lumbricoides at concentrations higher than those found in Rhipicephalus evertsi and Amblyomma hebraeum ticks. Immunohistochemistry was used to localize alpha-gal in tick salivary acini and the helminth gut. Non-alpha-gal-containing A lumbricoides antigens activated RS-ATL8 basophils primed with serum from subjects with alpha-gal syndrome. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the presence, relative abundances, and site of localization of alpha-gal-containing proteins in parasites. The activation of RS-ATL8 IgE reporter cells primed with serum from subjects with alpha-gal syndrome on exposure to non-alpha-gal-containing A lumbricoides proteins indicates a possible role of exposure to A lumbricoides in alpha-gal sensitization and clinical reactivity.

Development of a practically usable prediction model for quality of life of ICU survivors: A sub-analysis of the MONITOR-IC prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: As the goal of ICU treatment is survival in good health, we aimed to develop a prediction model for ICU survivors' change in quality of life (QoL) one year after ICU admission. MATERIALS & METHODS: This is a sub-study of the prospective cohort MONITOR-IC study. Adults admitted ≥12 h to the ICU of a university hospital between July 2016-January 2019 were included. Moribund patients were excluded. Change in QoL one year after ICU admission was quantified using the EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire, and Short-Form 36 (SF-36). Multivariable linear regression analysis and best subsets regression analysis (SRA) were used. Models were internally validated by bootstrapping. RESULTS: The PREdicting PAtients' long-term outcome for Recovery (PREPARE) model was developed (n = 1308 ICU survivors). The EQ-5D-models had better predictive performance than the SF-36-models. Explained variance (adjusted R2) of the best model (33 predictors) was 58.0%. SRA reduced the number of predictors to 5 (adjusted R2 = 55.3%, SE = 0.3), including QoL, diagnosis of a Cardiovascular Incident and frailty before admission, sex, and ICU-admission following planned surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Though more long-term data are needed to ascertain model accuracy, in future, the PREPARE model may be used to better inform and prepare patients and their families for ICU recovery.

Sources of persistent malaria transmission in a setting with effective malaria control in eastern Uganda: a longitudinal, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic malaria cases reflect only a small proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections. Many infected individuals are asymptomatic, and persistent asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in endemic settings. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections to P falciparum transmission in Tororo, Uganda. METHODS: We did a longitudinal, observational cohort study in Tororo district, Uganda. We recruited participants of all ages from randomly selected households within this district. Participants were eligible if the selected household had no more than nine permanent residents and at least two members younger than 10 years, and the household was their primary residence, and they agreed to come to the study clinic for any fever episode and avoid antimalarial medications outside the study. Participants were followed-up by continuous passive surveillance for the incidence of symptomatic infections; routine assessments (ie, standardised clinical evaluation and blood samples) were done at baseline and at routine visits every 4 weeks for 2 years. P falciparum parasite density, gametocyte density, and genetic composition were determined molecularly using quantitative PCR (qPCR), quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR), and amplicon deep sequencing, respectively. Membrane feeding assays were also done to assess infectivity to mosquitoes. The contribution of different populations to the infectious reservoir was estimated for symptomatic infections, asymptomatic but microscopically detected infections, and asymptomatic but qPCR-detected infections; and for age groups younger than 5 years, 5-15 years, and 16 years or older. FINDINGS: Between Oct 4, 2017, and Oct 31, 2019, 531 individuals were enrolled from 80 randomly selected households and were followed-up for 2 years. At baseline, P falciparum was detected in 28 (5·3%) of 531 participants by microscopy and an additional 64 (12·1%) by qPCR and declined thereafter. In 538 mosquito feeding experiments on 107 individuals, 446 (1·2%) of 37 404 mosquitoes became infected, with mosquito infection rates being strongly associated with gametocyte densities (ß=2·11, 95% CI 1·62-2·67; p<0·0001). Considering both transmissibility of infections and their relative frequency, the estimated human infectious reservoir consisted primarily of asymptomatic microscopy-detected infections (83·8%), followed by asymptomatic submicroscopic infections (15·6%), and symptomatic infections (0·6%). Children aged 5-15 years accounted for more than half of the infectious reservoir (58·7%); individuals younger than 5 years (25·8%) and those 16 years or older (15·6%) contributed less. Samples from four children contribued to 279 (62·6%) of 446 infected mosquitoes after multiple mosquito-feeding assays. INTERPRETATION: Individuals with asymptomatic infections were important drivers of malaria transmission. School-aged children contributed to more than half of all mosquito infections, with a small minority of asymptomatic children being highly infectious. Demographically targeted interventions, aimed at school-aged children, could further reduce transmission in areas under effective vector control. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the European Research Council.

Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: A competing risk survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: To date, survival data on risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in western Europe is limited, and none of the published survival studies have used a competing risk approach. This study aims to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands, considering recovery as a competing risk. METHODS: In this observational multicenter cohort study we included adults with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection that were admitted to one of five hospitals in the Netherlands (March to May 2020). We performed a competing risk survival analysis, presenting cause-specific hazard ratios (HRCS) for the effect of preselected factors on the absolute risk of death and recovery. RESULTS: 1,006 patients were included (63.9% male; median age 69 years, IQR: 58-77). Patients were hospitalized for a median duration of 6 days (IQR: 3-13); 243 (24.6%) of them died, 689 (69.9%) recovered, and 74 (7.4%) were censored. Patients with higher age (HRCS 1.10, 95% CI 1.08-1.12), immunocompromised state (HRCS 1.46, 95% CI 1.08-1.98), who used anticoagulants or antiplatelet medication (HRCS 1.38, 95% CI 1.01-1.88), with higher modified early warning score (MEWS) (HRCS 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18), and higher blood LDH at time of admission (HRCS 6.68, 95% CI 1.95-22.8) had increased risk of death, whereas fever (HRCS 0.70, 95% CI 0.52-0.95) decreased risk of death. We found no increased mortality risk in male patients, high BMI or diabetes. CONCLUSION: Our competing risk survival analysis confirms specific risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in a the Netherlands, which can be used for prediction research, more intense in-hospital monitoring or prioritizing particular patients for new treatments or vaccination.

Associations between Environmental dust composition and Atopic Dermatitis in urban and rural settings.

BACKGROUND: Environmental exposures are involved in the pathogenesis of the allergic phenotype and in determining which individual triggers a person becomes sensitized to. Atopic dermatitis (AD) may modulate these effects through increased penetration through the skin modifying the immune system and AD may be triggered or intensified by environmental exposures. These exposures and immune-modulating factors may differ in urban and rural environments. OBJECTIVES: To compare house dust composition in urban and rural settings and correlate them with AD outcomes. METHODS: Dust samples were collected from the beds of 156 children aged 6 months to 3 years. 42% of participants had atopic dermatitis. Samples were analyzed for bacterial endotoxin, fungal (ß-1,3-glucan) levels, and house dust mite, cockroach, dog, cat, mouse, and peanut allergen. Exposures were compared in urban and rural environments and in participants with and without AD. RESULTS: Endotoxin but not fungal ß-glucan exposure is higher in the environment of healthy controls than children with AD in both urban and rural settings. House dust mite allergen exposure is high in urban and rural settings with Dermatophagoides detected in 100% of samples. Cat and dog allergen exposure mirrors pet ownership patterns which differ slightly between groups and environments. Mouse allergen exposure is higher in urban homes. CONCLUSION: Environmental endotoxin may be protective against AD in both urban and rural settings. There are marked differences in allergen exposure in urban and rural settings, but these are unlikely to be important protective or risk factors.

Flexible modelling of risk factors on the incidence of pneumonia in young children in South Africa using piece-wise exponential additive mixed modelling.

INTRODUCTION: Recurrent episodes of pneumonia are frequently modeled using extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model with the underlying assumption of time-constant relative risks measured by the hazard ratio. We aim to relax this assumption in a study on the effect of factors on the evolution of pneumonia incidence over time based on data from a South African birth cohort study, the Drakenstein child health study. METHODS: We describe and apply two models: a time-constant and a time-varying relative effects model in a piece-wise exponential additive mixed model's framework for recurrent events. A more complex model that fits in the same framework is applied to study the continuously measured seasonal effects. RESULTS: We find that several risk factors (male sex, preterm birth, low birthweight, lower socioeconomic status, lower maternal education and maternal cigarette smoking) have strong relative effects that are persistent across time. When time-varying effects are allowed in the model, HIV exposure status (HIV exposed & uninfected versus HIV unexposed) shows a strong relative effect for younger children, but this effect weakens as children grow older, with a null effect reached from about 15 months. Weight-for-length at birth shows a time increasing relative effect. We also find that children born in the summer have a much higher risk of pneumonia in the 3-to-8-month age period compared with children born in winter. CONCLUSION: This work highlights the usefulness of flexible modelling tools in recurrent events models. It avoids stringent assumptions and allows estimation and visualization of absolute and relative risks over time of key factors associated with incidence of pneumonia in young children, providing new perspectives on the role of risk factors such HIV exposure.